Home Sales: 2015 VS. 2014…How long will the run last? This is a good one to read!


Have we hit the peak? We have certainly hit a new high in 2015. The median home sale price is up 15.6% from 2014 and Sales (# of Units) are up 7.7%. Where does that put us compared to the most recent bottom (2010) and where are we going from here….see below?

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As you can see, we have been on an upward curve (Hermosa home values) since 2010 when we saw the lowest median home price of $950,000 and a lower demand for sales.

223 Units Sold
$1,475,000 Median Sale Price
$15,000,000 Highest Sale Price
$372,000 Lowest Sale Price

207 Units Sold
$1,275,000 Median Sale Price
$8,950,000 Highest Sale Price
$338,000 Lowest Sale Price

175 Units Sold
950,000 Median Sale Price
5,800,000 Highest Sale Price
350,000 Lowest Sale Price

The accompanying table tells a story. It also shows that, with the exception of World War II, the peak of most real estate cycles is roughly every 18 years.

The preceding chart indicates that every 18 years we can expect the culmination of a credit-fueled real estate and ensuing business cycle. This, of course, doesn’t imply that all recessions are preceded by a real estate cycle. It only says that all real estate cycles have spawned economic downturns.

The chart above also indicates that we may still have a few more years of economic/home value increase, however when looking at the past 5-year growth rate here in Hermosa Beach, it seems hard to believe that we can sustain at the same rate. I look forward to seeing how 2016 unfolds.
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Post by Darren Pujalet

Darren has written 316 articles.

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